Dominic Johnson

Following the Russian invasion of Georgia, the western media and politicians have focused intensely on getting the Russians out of Georgia. However, the real issue that few seem to be talking about is whether the Russians will ever leave South Ossetia or Abkhazia (the breakaway ethnic Russian regions). By pushing their military forces all the way into Georgia proper, well beyond the South Ossetian border, the Russians deftly shifted the world’s attention onto a stand-off over Georgia as a whole. The breakaway regions became a side show. This meant that each “side” had a different reference point for winning or losing.

Russia may or may not pull out of Georgia itself. But that is just a bargaining chip that Russia is happy to pay in order to maintain their military occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia which, ironically, it can now “win” simply by “withdrawing” from Georgia. If they do so, the west will claim victory because they have apparently forced the Russians to step down. However, the real victory will go to the Russians. Not only have they succeeded in winning control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia-the main prize at stake-and likely ruling out flashpoint Georgia from ever joining NATO, but they have also succeeded in smoke-screening the western media and politicians into believing that they themselves have won. With this false perspective, western diplomats may find themselves slapping each other on the back even as they effectively cede the breakaway regions to Russia (with all the consequences that may bring for other former Soviet states). The Russians asked for more than they wanted so they could settle for less.

The west should refocus its attention and diplomacy on the real challenge: how to get the Russians out of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Unfortunately, the delay has made this a fait accompli. The Russians have not only out-gunned Georgia, they have out-smarted the west.